OPEC revised downward global oil demand growth for 2022 by 0.5mbpd to 3.7mbpd (vs. earlier forecast of 4.2mbpd), with global oil demand expected to average at 100.5mbpd. This is mostly due to the downward revision in global economic growth on geopolitical developments and the resurgence of the Omicron variant in China.
Non-OPEC oil supply growth for 2022 is revised down by 0.3mbpd to 2.7mbpd, for a yearly average of 66.26mbpd. This is mainly due to a downward revision for Russia’s oil output by 530,000bpd for 2022. Note that Kazakhstan’s oil output is expected to grow by 0.13mbpd to average 1.96mbpd, a downward revision of 29,000bpd. This is due to the disruption in the CPC terminal in the Black Sea. The Kazakh Energy Ministry stated that it may have to cut crude and condensate production by 320,000bpd until end-April while repairs are being conducted at the terminal.